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Waiting for Brexit is not a bad thing- why Theresa May is not yet triggering Art 50

There are a lot of people who feel deeply confused as to why David Cameron didn’t trigger Article 50, and why Theresa May hasn’t done it the second she stepped into Downing Street.
The answer is obvious- because this is not a decision to be made lightly, and because when you have started it, all of the set time for negotiations should be spent on those negotiations, not on making and arguing about how to do it.

So it makes sense to first make the strategy and then start applying it.

However, there are other reasons that make waiting for a while a good idea.
Here’s a list of them:

1. Europe wants us to do it as fast as possible.

In and by itself this should be a huge cautionary sign, as the EU no longer regards us as a friend and hasn’t done so in a while.  If they want to hurry us up is because they’re trying to force us in a disadvantageous agreement that would discourage all of the other separatist movements.
Doing things fast and without considering them is a bad idea from that point of view as it gives the EU a solid advantage over us.

2. The longer we wait the more likely we are to get a better deal.

This has something to do with the precarious situation in which the EU is at the moment from a financial and political point of view. The more troubled Italy and Germany are, the more likely they are to give Britain a hard time.  Deutsche Bank is rumoured to be in deep trouble and the EU is currently punishing the Italian banking sector. This will create economic weakness and instability which will make it a lot more necessary for the EU to not cripple its exports by playing hardball with the UK.

3.  Scotland.
Theresa May is prime minister of all of Britain and she doesn’t want to go down in history as the person who let Scotland go. By this time it is clear the EU will not accept any argument for Scotland to remain in the EU by itself, as this would set a dangerous precedent for other secessionist regions. If Scotland wants to remain in the EU, it can’t. It has to first secede from the UK then reapply, and Scotland’s current situation  and the low cost of oil means that at this moment Scotland lives outside its means.  As of now Scotland spends  15 billion £ a year more than it raises in taxes on its overly generous benefits system.  I expect that the Barnett Formula that makes this possible will change in the near future.
The Scots will not vote to leave if leaving makes them poorer.
While Nicola Salmond will continue to bark, Theresa May will probably just give her enough rope to hang herself, and we should expect that the EU will make it very clear that Scotland remaining in is not an option.  Several countries have already done so, but some rabblerouser politicians think that it puts pressure on Britain to keep the pointless discussion open.

4. Trade deals.

The UK is getting more and more requests for free trade deals.  The more we get and sign, the strongest our position is versus the EU.  The more we can orient our trade towards the rest of the world the more likely we are to be able to tell Europe to take their tariffs and shove them.

This is tremendously more important considering that with the changes in South America, the Mercosur treaty is in the process of going to hell. Mercosur is the economic treaty that has dominated South America for decades and that demanded that products exported from outside the Mercosur countries were applied insane import tariffs of 50% or more. However with the recent changes in leadership etc, Mercosur is on its last legs and the UK by itself is more likely to negotiate a fast deal with South American countries than is the slow moving EU juggernaut.

5. USA

People have this thing where they don’t realize that the UK and USA’s militaries are very intertwined. Any military and to a point economic decision the UK will make depends on the US, and the US has elections soon. The result of these elections will massively influence our external policy.

6. EU citizens

AS of now, there are some 3.9 million EU citizens in the UK and some 2.9 living in other EU countries.
However, the majority of UK citizens living abroad are expats, while the EU citizens living here are young and working- they are actually the only category that pays in more taxes than it takes out in benefits.

Nobody wants them gone, especially as doing that would mean the UK would have to take its expats back, and the expats are retired and thus economically inactive. They are also old and ill and would put extra burdens on the NHS. Making this exchange is a bad deal for the UK< which will probably press to have then stay where they are and the EU citizens who came here before 24th June 16 stay.


7. Ireland and Good Friday Agreements

Peace in Northern Ireland is largely dependent on the Good Friday Agreement, and it would suffer a huge blow if  land borders would be implemented.
Therefore it is important to have careful negotiations about this. Again not something that can be rushed.

So by all means, relax. It’s being taken care of.

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