Waiting for Brexit is not a bad thing- why Theresa May is not yet triggering Art 50
There are a lot of people who feel deeply confused as to why
David Cameron didn’t trigger Article 50, and why Theresa May hasn’t done it the
second she stepped into Downing Street.
The answer is obvious- because this is not a decision to be made lightly, and
because when you have started it, all of the set time for negotiations should
be spent on those negotiations, not on making and arguing about how to do it.
So it makes sense to first make the strategy and then start applying it.
However, there are other reasons that make waiting for a while a good idea.
Here’s a list of them:
1. Europe wants us to do it as fast as possible.
In and by itself this should be a huge cautionary sign, as the EU no longer
regards us as a friend and hasn’t done so in a while. If they want to hurry us up is because they’re
trying to force us in a disadvantageous agreement that would discourage all of
the other separatist movements.
Doing things fast and without considering them is a bad idea from that point of
view as it gives the EU a solid advantage over us.
2. The longer we wait the more likely we are to get a better deal.
This has something to do with the precarious situation in which the EU is at
the moment from a financial and political point of view. The more troubled
Italy and Germany are, the more likely they are to give Britain a hard time. Deutsche Bank is rumoured to be in deep
trouble and the EU is currently punishing the Italian banking sector. This will
create economic weakness and instability which will make it a lot more
necessary for the EU to not cripple its exports by playing hardball with the
Theresa May is prime minister of all of Britain and she doesn’t want to go down
in history as the person who let Scotland go. By this time it is clear the EU
will not accept any argument for Scotland to remain in the EU by itself, as
this would set a dangerous precedent for other secessionist regions. If
Scotland wants to remain in the EU, it can’t. It has to first secede from the
UK then reapply, and Scotland’s current situation and the low cost of oil means that at this
moment Scotland lives outside its means.
As of now Scotland spends 15 billion
£ a year more than it raises in taxes on its overly generous benefits
system. I expect that the Barnett
Formula that makes this possible will change in the near future.
The Scots will not vote to leave if leaving makes them poorer.
While Nicola Salmond will continue to bark, Theresa May will probably just give
her enough rope to hang herself, and we should expect that the EU will make it
very clear that Scotland remaining in is not an option. Several countries have already done so, but
some rabblerouser politicians think that it puts pressure on Britain to keep
the pointless discussion open.
4. Trade deals.
The UK is getting more and more requests for free trade
deals. The more we get and sign, the
strongest our position is versus the EU. The more we can orient our trade towards the
rest of the world the more likely we are to be able to tell Europe to take
their tariffs and shove them.
This is tremendously more important considering that with the changes in South
America, the Mercosur treaty is in the process of going to hell. Mercosur is
the economic treaty that has dominated South America for decades and that
demanded that products exported from outside the Mercosur countries were
applied insane import tariffs of 50% or more. However with the recent changes
in leadership etc, Mercosur is on its last legs and the UK by itself is more
likely to negotiate a fast deal with South American countries than is the slow
moving EU juggernaut.
People have this thing where they don’t realize that the UK
and USA’s militaries are very intertwined. Any military and to a point economic
decision the UK will make depends on the US, and the US has elections soon. The
result of these elections will massively influence our external policy.
6. EU citizens
AS of now, there are some 3.9 million EU citizens in the UK
and some 2.9 living in other EU countries.
However, the majority of UK citizens living abroad are expats, while the EU
citizens living here are young and working- they are actually the only category
that pays in more taxes than it takes out in benefits.
Nobody wants them gone, especially as doing that would mean the UK would have
to take its expats back, and the expats are retired and thus economically
inactive. They are also old and ill and would put extra burdens on the NHS. Making
this exchange is a bad deal for the UK< which will probably press to have
then stay where they are and the EU citizens who came here before 24th
June 16 stay.
7. Ireland and Good Friday Agreements
Peace in Northern Ireland is largely dependent on
the Good Friday Agreement, and it would suffer a huge blow if land borders would be implemented.
Therefore it is important to have careful negotiations about this. Again not
something that can be rushed.
So by all means, relax. It’s being taken care of.
If you enjoy our work, please share it on your medium of choice.
While we are a free site and make no money from traffic, more visitors mean a larger the number of people who get to see an alternative view.